By Luke Barr, Financial Mail On Sunday

Published: 16:51 EDT, 10 September 2022 | Updated: 16:51 EDT, 10 September 2022

Airlines face a bleak winter after the end of Government support, a summer of cancellations and rising costs, analysts have warned. 

Firms battling staff shortages and soaring fuel prices struggled to meet a surge in demand over the peak holiday period. Now the next three months will be a fragile time that could usher in a string of failures if travellers facing higher household bills cut back on flying. 

Autumn is traditionally the most painful season for airlines, when they must settle bills and invest in the coming year even as demand dwindles. Monarch collapsed in October 2017 and Thomas Cook followed in September 2019. 

City broker Bernstein said in a report: 'The pandemic has brought few airline failures in Europe, with state support and furlough schemes keeping many from collapsing. That may be about to change.' 

At risk: The next three months will heap pressure on airlines across Europe

Jet fuel is nearly double what it cost before the pandemic, while almost all major airlines have been forced to increase wages to combat staff shortages. 

'Winter 2022-23 looks set to be one of the worst in memory,' said the report. 'September heralds the beginning of bankruptcy season.

'After the summer is over, airlines often enter into a period of losses and limited cashflows, as demand ebbs with the weather, and children return to school.' 

Bernstein said airlines in Central and Eastern Europe were at the highest risk. 

The report said the low-cost Irish airline Ryanair and Wizz Air could be among the biggest beneficiaries of a fallout. 

Ryanair was also listed as among the European carriers best prepared for the squeeze, followed by easyJet, Jet2, British Airways owner IAG and – the lowest ranked of the London-listed stocks – travel firm TUI. But even Ryanair recently warned of an 'extremely challenging' winter as it withdrew planes from a Brussels airport. 

Bernstein assigned airlines a 'survival score', though there is no suggestion any UK firms are in financial difficulty. Bernstein's score ranges from zero to 100. Ryanair received 92 while Tui was handed 60. 

However FTSE 250-listed Tui ranked higher than a large number of other smaller airlines that fly to the UK, including Finnair, Norwegian and Blue Air. The lowest was France's ASL with a score of zero. 

It has been a chaotic recovery for travel firms since Covid restrictions were eased earlier this year. 

Cancellations and queues have littered airports across Europe, with Heathrow among the worst hit. 

Last week, Gatwick's chief financial officer Jim Butler said he was 'cautious about what we might see in the winter or next year'. 

He said economic uncertainty could 'impact the overall propensity for travel' as the industry faces ongoing staff shortages and rising fuel costs. 

Heathrow recently came under fire for trying to introduce a new charge for airlines. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents the largest airlines, accused the airport of trying to 'squeeze more money' from companies already struggling with sky-high costs.

Some links in this article may be affiliate links. If you click on them we may earn a small commission. That helps us fund This Is Money, and keep it free to use. We do not write articles to promote products. We do not allow any commercial relationship to affect our editorial independence.

The comments below have not been moderated.

The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.

By posting your comment you agree to our house rules.

Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline?

Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual.

Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline?

Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual

We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook.

You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.

‘What the money news means for you’

This is Money is part of the Daily Mail, Mail on Sunday & Metro media group