I love the NFL Scouting Combine, and not just because it's seemingly all about data -- to be honest, the data matters but it's only a small part of the whole process. I love the combine because of the awesome strategies and team building philosophies I learn by visiting with coaches and front office executives in attendance. I can get pretty poetic about this, but there's a balance between art and science when it comes to data collection, interpretation and application. So, the combine is where I get to see the gears turning in some extremely smart minds. The supply of this year's wave of soon-to-be NFL players can alter the demand for, and away from, certain positions, ultimately shaping the product we see on the field for years to come.

My pre-draft model starts by taking 21 seasons of NFL performance data and defining levels of success by position. I determine the blend of attributes at each position in order to group players into one of the following categories: elite, above average, average, below average or well below average. I also use advanced math, Next Gen Stats, Computer Vision and machine learning to help uncover patterns that can be statistically validated. Then I review my model's results with coaches and execs to make sure each player is categorized correctly. I compare the résumés of current NFL players to those of the draft-eligible prospects to identify similarities and high-probability trajectories.

Each draft prospect's college résumé -- along with his combine results -- are compared with the historical database to give context to his potential for success (and shows where there are holes or points of uncertainty).

With all that said, here are four things to look out for at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine:

One emerging pattern is that players who perform at above average and elite levels in the NFL tend to have had combine results that fall within pretty specific ranges. Not every test matters for each position, but for each position, there are certain combine metrics that have more predictive merit based on historical data.

Failing to fall within these key ranges certainly doesn't mean a prospect won't have success at the next level. Rather, it's just another factor in the overall evaluation process. For example, teams use this historical information to help determine if a player has been overlooked or how he might best be used on the field.

Running Back (less emphasis on pass catching):

The first 10-yard split of the 40-yard dash, broad jump, vertical jump and short shuttle are the four tests to watch here. Most of the league's elite defensive tackles had a short shuttle time that was at least 0.35 seconds faster than their 40 time.

My models currently rate Garrett Wilson as the No. 1-ranked wide receiver in this class. Last season at Ohio State, Wilson had a 141. 7 passer rating when targeted (No. 2 in the Big Ten) and had the best body control-earning yards-after-catch rating per Computer Vision. Alabama's Jameson Williams took a huge step forward in 2021, earning 9.3 yards after the catch per reception (No. 4 in Power Five), while USC's Drake London had an FBS-best 19 contested catches, per Pro Football Focus. All three project to have different impacts in different systems, so the combine will go a long way in sorting out how teams see/plan to use each guy.

Trey McBride, who had 17 contested catches (tied for most in the Group of Five), which helped drive 61 first downs earned (fourth in Group of Five), is my highest-rated tight end and he's not likely to make it out of the second round. But this year's class has a ton of depth, with guys like Charlie Kolar and Jelani Woods being potential sleepers who could end up being game-changers in the NFL.

Getting the center position right is a big deal. Just look at the impact Creed Humphrey had on the Chiefs last year (he even got a vote for OROY!). This season, Tyler Linderbaum and Zion Johnson could be instant difference-makers for a team in need of interior O-line help. When watching them in Indy, keep an eye on their hip levels. Are they able to stay low (keeping their hips within 3.25 inches of their starting point) while moving quickly and maintaining balance? Johnson allowed just six pressure last season at Boston College, and Linderbaum, well he has better résumé indicators than Humphrey did based on their respective college tape.

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